Big Ten · Boilermakers · West Lafayette, IN
Purdue
Your complete Purdue season outlook.
Portal volume improves depth, but only six starters return and Ryan Browne's prior starting results create significant quarterback risk.
Home stadiumRoss-Ade StadiumRPR rank#84Projected-wins rank#128
Projected wins3.26Most likely: 3 wins · 80% range 2–4
Rundown Power Rating -3.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #84National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#19Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #128Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -0.16
Probability over41%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -3.2
- National RPR Rank
- #84
- Schedule strength rank
- #19
- Average opponent power
- +8.6
- Offense rating
- 23.5
- Defense rating
- 27.4
- Projected QB
- Ryan Browne
- QB starts
- 14
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Barry Odom
- Returning starters
- 6
- Portal rank
- 12
- Roster fragility
- 46.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
17.6%
221.7%
329.4%
423.6%
512.1%
64.1%
70.9%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4, 2026 | Indiana State | Home | 37–14 | 51.3 | +23.1 | 94% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 21–26 | 47.4 | -4.5 | 38% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 20–32 | 52.0 | -11.8 | 22% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 13–40 | 53.1 | -27.1 | 4% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 19–34 | 52.7 | -15.5 | 15% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 21–27 | 47.4 | -6.0 | 35% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 16, 2026 | Home | 17–33 | 50.4 | -15.7 | 15% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 15–37 | 51.7 | -22.1 | 7% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 22–27 | 49.6 | -5.1 | 37% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 15–33 | 48.7 | -18.1 | 11% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 21–23 | 44.4 | -1.5 | 46% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 10–41 | 50.9 | -31.5 | 2% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.