Big Ten · Nittany Lions · University Park, PA
Penn State
Your complete Penn State season outlook.
Rocco Becht and the Big Ten's largest transfer class help reload a thin returning core, while a new head coach and coordinators increase uncertainty.
Home stadiumBeaver StadiumRPR rank#17Projected-wins rank#8
Projected wins9.18Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 8–10
Rundown Power Rating +16.1Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #17National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#58Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #8Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge +0.35
Probability over71%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +16.1
- National RPR Rank
- #17
- Schedule strength rank
- #58
- Average opponent power
- +3.2
- Offense rating
- 33.9
- Defense rating
- 18.5
- Projected QB
- Rocco Becht
- QB starts
- 39
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Matt Campbell
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 1
- Roster fragility
- 51.7
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
5<1%
62.4%
77.9%
818.6%
927.9%
1026.1%
1113.6%
122.9%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 42–17 | 59.2 | +25.1 | 95% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 40–17 | 56.3 | +22.8 | 94% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 39–9 | 47.7 | +29.9 | 98% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 31–14 | 45.2 | +16.4 | 86% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 2, 2026 | Away | 29–20 | 48.3 | +9.0 | 73% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 29–27 | 55.9 | +1.3 | 53% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 24–27 | 50.6 | -3.5 | 41% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 37–15 | 51.7 | +22.1 | 93% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 25–27 | 51.2 | -1.8 | 45% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 31–18 | 48.3 | +13.0 | 81% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 37–19 | 56.2 | +17.6 | 88% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 30–20 | 50.5 | +9.6 | 74% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.