Big Ten · Hoosiers · Bloomington, IN
Indiana
Your complete Indiana season outlook.
Josh Hoover, a strongly positive portal exchange and Curt Cignetti's repeatable transfer integration preserve a high ceiling after Mendoza.
Home stadiumMemorial StadiumRPR rank#5Projected-wins rank#5
Projected wins10.11Most likely: 10 wins · 80% range 9–11
Rundown Power Rating +25.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #5National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#41Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #5Strength plus schedule
Market total10.5
Adjusted Edge -0.29
Probability over39%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +25.8
- National RPR Rank
- #5
- Schedule strength rank
- #41
- Average opponent power
- +4.9
- Offense rating
- 38.1
- Defense rating
- 13.1
- Projected QB
- Josh Hoover
- QB starts
- 33
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Curt Cignetti
- Returning starters
- 10
- Portal rank
- 3
- Roster fragility
- 15.1
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
5<1%
6<1%
71.2%
86.3%
919.6%
1034.1%
1129.5%
129.1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 48–8 | 55.6 | +40.1 | >99% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Howard | Home | 47–5 | 51.5 | +42.0 | >99% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 44–10 | 54.0 | +33.2 | 99% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 25, 2026 | Home | 35–12 | 47.6 | +22.7 | 94% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 39–16 | 55.5 | +22.9 | 94% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 33–18 | 50.9 | +14.7 | 84% | High | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 23–28 | 50.3 | -4.8 | 37% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 28–22 | 49.9 | +6.5 | 67% | Medium | |
| 9 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 35–13 | 47.6 | +21.9 | 93% | High | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 33–22 | 55.2 | +11.4 | 78% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 29–21 | 50.5 | +7.8 | 70% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 41–10 | 50.9 | +31.5 | 98% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.