Big Ten · Badgers · Madison, WI
Wisconsin
Your complete Wisconsin season outlook.
Portal additions and Colton Joseph's dual-threat production create upside, but limited continuity and staff pressure widen the range.
Home stadiumCamp Randall StadiumRPR rank#61Projected-wins rank#97
Projected wins5.32Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–7
Rundown Power Rating +2.0Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #61National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#50Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #97Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge -1.14
Probability over21%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +2.0
- National RPR Rank
- #61
- Schedule strength rank
- #50
- Average opponent power
- +3.9
- Offense rating
- 20.9
- Defense rating
- 18.5
- Projected QB
- Colton Joseph
- QB starts
- 13
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Luke Fickell
- Returning starters
- 6
- Portal rank
- 9
- Roster fragility
- 49.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
22.0%
38.5%
419.0%
526.0%
623.3%
713.9%
85.5%
91.4%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6, 2026 | Neutral | 12–35 | 46.6 | -23.6 | 6% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Western Illinois | Home | 37–8 | 44.9 | +29.5 | 98% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 32–12 | 44.3 | +19.5 | 90% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 14–31 | 45.2 | -16.4 | 14% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 25–21 | 45.4 | +3.8 | 60% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 20–26 | 45.6 | -6.6 | 33% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 18–31 | 48.5 | -13.2 | 19% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 15–28 | 42.3 | -12.9 | 19% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 25–23 | 48.8 | +1.9 | 55% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 19–24 | 43.2 | -5.2 | 36% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 23–21 | 44.4 | +1.5 | 54% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 20–21 | 41.1 | -1.3 | 47% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.