Pac-12 · Aggies · Logan, UT Flex schedule

Utah State

Your complete Utah State season outlook.

McCae Hillstead and nine returning starters provide continuity, but the defense and a difficult nonconference schedule constrain the full-season ceiling.

Home stadiumMaverik StadiumRPR rank#98Projected-wins rank#111

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins4.56Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–6

Rundown Power Rating -7.2Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #98National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#69Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #111Strength plus schedule

Market total5.5

Adjusted Edge -0.56

Probability over22%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.21 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: -7.2
National RPR Rank: #98
Schedule strength rank: #69
Average opponent power: -0.9
Offense rating: 23.8
Defense rating: 30.7
Projected QB: McCae Hillstead
QB starts: 4
QB confidence: Low-Medium
Head coach: Bronco Mendenhall
Returning starters: 9
Portal rank: 5
Roster fragility: 48.7

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

11.7%

27.0%

316.1%

424.1%

524.0%

616.6%

77.5%

82.3%

9<1%

10<1%

11<1%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 5, 2026	Idaho State	Home	33–20	53.3	+13.4	81%	Medium
2	Sep 12, 2026	Washington Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	14–39	52.4	-25.3	5%	High
3	Sep 19, 2026	Utah Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	16–38	54.8	-21.9	7%	Medium
4	Sep 26, 2026	Troy Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	28–27	54.3	+1.0	53%	Low
5	Oct 3, 2026	Boise State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	18–36	53.9	-17.5	12%	High
6	Oct 10, 2026	Washington State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	25–24	49.7	+0.8	52%	Low
7	Oct 24, 2026	Texas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	33–32	63.9	+0.0	50%	Low
8	Oct 31, 2026	Colorado State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	27–23	49.7	+3.7	60%	Low
9	Nov 7, 2026	Fresno State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	23–25	48.3	-2.3	44%	Low
10	Nov 14, 2026	San Diego State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	21–30	51.0	-8.7	28%	Medium
11	Nov 21, 2026	Oregon State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	24–27	50.7	-3.2	41%	Low
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	Boise StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Home	21–33	53.9	-12.5	20%	High

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.