Pac-12 · Aztecs · San Diego, CA Flex schedule

San Diego State

Your complete San Diego State season outlook.

Seven offensive starters and Jayden Denegal support improvement, but the defense replaces its coordinator and returns only three starters.

Home stadiumSnapdragon StadiumRPR rank#72Projected-wins rank#55

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins7.03Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–8

Rundown Power Rating -1.1Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #72National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#77Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #55Strength plus schedule

Market total7.5

Adjusted Edge -0.60

Probability over27%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.47 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: -1.1
National RPR Rank: #72
Schedule strength rank: #77
Average opponent power: -5.0
Offense rating: 22.9
Defense rating: 24.8
Projected QB: Jayden Denegal
QB starts: 12
QB confidence: Medium
Head coach: Sean Lewis
Returning starters: 10
Portal rank: 3
Roster fragility: 38.4

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

1<1%

2<1%

31.3%

44.6%

511.2%

619.4%

723.8%

820.9%

912.5%

104.8%

111.1%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 5, 2026	Portland State	Home	36–13	49.5	+23.0	94%	Medium
2	Sep 12, 2026	UCLA Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	21–30	50.2	-9.0	27%	Medium
3	Sep 19, 2026	James Madison Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	26–23	49.4	+3.5	59%	Low
4	Sep 26, 2026	Toledo Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	26–19	45.6	+7.2	69%	Medium
5	Oct 3, 2026	Texas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	33–27	60.0	+6.4	66%	Medium
6	Oct 10, 2026	Oregon State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	25–22	46.9	+2.7	57%	Low
7	Oct 17, 2026	Fresno State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	24–21	44.5	+3.4	59%	Low
8	Oct 24, 2026	Colorado State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	25–21	45.9	+4.5	62%	Medium
9	Oct 31, 2026	Washington State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	26–20	45.9	+6.6	67%	Medium
10	Nov 14, 2026	Utah State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	30–21	51.0	+8.7	72%	Medium
11	Nov 21, 2026	Boise State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	20–30	50.0	-10.8	24%	High
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	Fresno StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Away	22–23	44.5	-1.4	46%	Low

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.