Pac-12 · Bulldogs · Fresno, CA Flex schedule

Fresno State

Your complete Fresno State season outlook.

Thirteen returning starters and coordinator continuity give Fresno State a dependable defensive floor, while an unproven quarterback limits the offensive ceiling.

Home stadiumValley Children’s StadiumRPR rank#81Projected-wins rank#63

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins6.79Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 5–8

Rundown Power Rating -2.3Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #81National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#78Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #63Strength plus schedule

Market total7.5

Adjusted Edge -0.53

Probability over21%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.53 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: -2.3
National RPR Rank: #81
Schedule strength rank: #78
Average opponent power: -5.2
Offense rating: 20.2
Defense rating: 22.7
Projected QB: Khristian Martin
QB starts: 0
QB confidence: Low
Head coach: Matt Entz
Returning starters: 13
Portal rank: 8
Roster fragility: 52.6

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

1<1%

2<1%

31.7%

45.8%

513.2%

621.3%

724.1%

819.2%

910.2%

103.5%

110.6%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 4, 2026	USC Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	14–36	50.5	-21.9	7%	High
2	Sep 12, 2026	Sacramento State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	35–13	47.5	+22.2	93%	Medium
3	Sep 19, 2026	San Jose State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	29–18	47.1	+10.3	75%	Medium
4	Sep 26, 2026	Rice Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	30–16	45.4	+13.8	82%	Medium
5	Oct 3, 2026	Washington State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	22–21	43.2	+0.4	51%	Low
6	Oct 10, 2026	Boise State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	20–27	47.3	-6.6	33%	Medium
7	Oct 17, 2026	San Diego State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	21–24	44.5	-3.4	41%	Low
8	Oct 31, 2026	Oregon State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	25–19	44.3	+6.2	66%	Medium
9	Nov 7, 2026	Utah State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	25–23	48.3	+2.3	56%	Low
10	Nov 14, 2026	Texas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	29–30	57.2	-0.1	50%	Low
11	Nov 21, 2026	Colorado State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	26–18	43.3	+8.3	71%	Medium
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	San Diego StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Home	23–22	44.5	+1.4	54%	Low

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.