Pac-12 · Broncos · Boise, ID Flex schedule

Boise State

Your complete Boise State season outlook.

The league's strongest baseline, Maddux Madsen's 26 starts and 11 returning starters create the best median; the rebuilt secondary is the main concern.

Home stadiumAlbertsons StadiumRPR rank#39Projected-wins rank#12

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins8.81Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 8–10

Rundown Power Rating +7.3Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #39National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#72Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #12Strength plus schedule

Market total8.5

Adjusted Edge +0.05

Probability over36%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.79 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: +7.3
National RPR Rank: #39
Schedule strength rank: #72
Average opponent power: -2.2
Offense rating: 30.1
Defense rating: 22.7
Projected QB: Maddux Madsen
QB starts: 26
QB confidence: Medium-High
Head coach: Spencer Danielson
Returning starters: 11
Portal rank: 7
Roster fragility: 25.2

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

1<1%

2<1%

3<1%

4<1%

51.0%

64.2%

711.2%

821.7%

928.6%

1023.4%

119.1%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 5, 2026	Oregon Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	14–39	53.3	-24.7	5%	High
2	Sep 12, 2026	Memphis Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	34–22	56.1	+11.5	78%	Medium
3	Sep 19, 2026	South Dakota	Home	34–19	52.4	+14.6	84%	Medium
4	Sep 26, 2026	Western Michigan Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	30–19	48.5	+11.0	77%	High
5	Oct 3, 2026	Utah State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	36–18	53.9	+17.5	88%	High
6	Oct 10, 2026	Fresno State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	27–20	47.3	+6.6	67%	Medium
7	Oct 24, 2026	Washington State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	29–19	48.7	+10.1	75%	Medium
8	Oct 31, 2026	Texas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	40–23	63.0	+16.4	86%	High
9	Nov 7, 2026	Colorado State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	31–18	48.8	+12.8	80%	Medium
10	Nov 14, 2026	Oregon State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	33–17	49.8	+15.9	86%	High
11	Nov 21, 2026	San Diego State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	30–20	50.0	+10.8	76%	High
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	Utah StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Away	33–21	53.9	+12.5	80%	High

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.