Pac-12 · Cougars · Pullman, WA Flex schedule

Washington State

Your complete Washington State season outlook.

Caden Pinnick has real upside, yet a new staff, zero returning defensive starters and three Power Four nonconference games create a wide range of outcomes.

Home stadiumGesa FieldRPR rank#90Projected-wins rank#103

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins5.03Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–6

Rundown Power Rating -5.5Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #90National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#70Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #103Strength plus schedule

Market total5.5

Adjusted Edge -0.70

Probability over24%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.58 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: -5.5
National RPR Rank: #90
Schedule strength rank: #70
Average opponent power: -1.1
Offense rating: 20.0
Defense rating: 25.3
Projected QB: Caden Pinnick
QB starts: 14
QB confidence: Low-Medium
Head coach: Kirby Moore
Returning starters: 5
Portal rank: 2
Roster fragility: 70.8

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

11.0%

24.5%

311.9%

420.4%

523.9%

620.0%

711.7%

84.9%

91.3%

10<1%

11<1%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 6, 2026	Washington Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	12–35	47.3	-22.4	7%	Medium
2	Sep 12, 2026	Kansas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	16–34	50.7	-18.0	11%	Medium
3	Sep 19, 2026	Duquesne	Home	32–16	48.2	+16.5	86%	Low
4	Sep 26, 2026	Arizona Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	18–31	48.6	-13.5	18%	Medium
5	Oct 3, 2026	Fresno State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	21–22	43.2	-0.4	49%	Low
6	Oct 10, 2026	Utah State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	24–25	49.7	-0.8	48%	Low
7	Oct 17, 2026	Oregon State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	22–24	45.6	-1.6	46%	Low
8	Oct 24, 2026	Boise State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	19–29	48.7	-10.1	25%	Medium
9	Oct 31, 2026	San Diego State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	20–26	45.9	-6.6	33%	Medium
10	Nov 14, 2026	Colorado State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	25–20	44.6	+5.6	64%	Low
11	Nov 21, 2026	Texas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	30–28	58.6	+1.7	55%	Low
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	Oregon StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Home	24–21	45.6	+3.3	59%	Low

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.