Mountain West · Miners · El Paso, TX
UTEP
Your complete UTEP season outlook.
The Miners added portal volume and EJ Colson brings upside, but one returning offensive starter and a brutal nonconference slate suppress the full-season projection.
Home stadiumSun BowlRPR rank#129Projected-wins rank#131
Projected wins2.66Most likely: 2 wins · 80% range 1–4
Rundown Power Rating -20.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #129National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#76Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #131Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -0.68
Probability over26%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -20.2
- National RPR Rank
- #129
- Schedule strength rank
- #76
- Average opponent power
- -4.3
- Offense rating
- 14.9
- Defense rating
- 34.6
- Projected QB
- EJ Colson
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Scotty Walden
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 4
- Roster fragility
- 61.6
Record outcomes
Win distribution
04.2%
116.1%
227.3%
326.6%
416.7%
56.9%
62.0%
7<1%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4, 2026 | Away | 4–43 | 47.4 | -39.5 | <1% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Texas Southern | Home | 26–24 | 50.5 | +1.5 | 54% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 5–44 | 49.0 | -39.5 | <1% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 18–30 | 47.9 | -11.1 | 23% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 14–37 | 50.4 | -22.8 | 6% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 21–27 | 48.0 | -5.9 | 35% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 24–27 | 50.8 | -2.7 | 43% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 14–36 | 49.5 | -21.7 | 7% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 19–34 | 52.6 | -14.7 | 16% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 18–26 | 44.5 | -7.8 | 30% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 20, 2026 | Away | 15–36 | 51.1 | -20.9 | 8% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 21–25 | 46.8 | -4.1 | 39% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.