Mountain West · Spartans · San Jose, CA
San Jose State
Your complete San Jose State season outlook.
Luke Weaver improves the quarterback outlook, but only two starters return and the Spartans must integrate 21 transfers across a 13-game schedule.
Home stadiumCEFCU StadiumRPR rank#122Projected-wins rank#115
Projected wins4.24Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–6
Rundown Power Rating -15.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #122National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#82Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #115Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge +0.27
Probability over67%
Market basis13 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -15.2
- National RPR Rank
- #122
- Schedule strength rank
- #82
- Average opponent power
- -6.3
- Offense rating
- 18.8
- Defense rating
- 33.6
- Projected QB
- Luke Weaver
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Ken Niumatalolo
- Returning starters
- 2
- Portal rank
- 3
- Roster fragility
- 75.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
13.2%
210.2%
319.4%
424.3%
520.8%
613.2%
76.0%
81.9%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Away | 10–46 | 55.9 | -35.9 | 1% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 4, 2026 | Away | 24–27 | 51.5 | -3.2 | 42% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Cal Poly | Home | 30–22 | 52.2 | +7.9 | 70% | Low |
| 4 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 18–29 | 47.1 | -10.3 | 25% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 20–35 | 54.2 | -14.8 | 16% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 9, 2026 | Home | 22–25 | 46.2 | -3.0 | 42% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 27–24 | 50.8 | +2.7 | 57% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 22–28 | 49.6 | -5.6 | 35% | Low | |
| 9 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 19–33 | 52.0 | -13.2 | 19% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 27–21 | 48.5 | +6.4 | 66% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 18–34 | 52.8 | -16.1 | 14% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 20–37 | 56.8 | -17.1 | 13% | Medium | |
| 13 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 20–32 | 51.2 | -12.0 | 21% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.