Mountain West · Rainbow Warriors · Honolulu, HI
Hawaii
Your complete Hawaii season outlook.
Micah Alejado gives Hawai'i the league's best quarterback ceiling; trench turnover and extensive travel prevent a larger projection.
Home stadiumClarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexRPR rank#83Projected-wins rank#43
Projected wins7.43Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -3.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #83National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#105Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #43Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.19
Probability over49%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -3.2
- National RPR Rank
- #83
- Schedule strength rank
- #105
- Average opponent power
- -8.8
- Offense rating
- 25.8
- Defense rating
- 29.8
- Projected QB
- Micah Alejado
- QB starts
- 12
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Timmy Chang
- Returning starters
- 7
- Portal rank
- 6
- Roster fragility
- 48.0
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
30.5%
42.4%
57.6%
616.4%
724.2%
824.0%
916.2%
106.8%
111.7%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Away | 23–28 | 51.1 | -4.5 | 38% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 27–31 | 58.6 | -4.2 | 39% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 34–19 | 53.1 | +15.8 | 85% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 25–23 | 47.9 | +2.9 | 58% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 35–20 | 54.2 | +14.8 | 84% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 20–33 | 52.4 | -12.8 | 20% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 26–27 | 53.8 | -1.1 | 47% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 31–19 | 50.2 | +12.6 | 80% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 34–19 | 52.6 | +14.7 | 84% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 26–27 | 52.9 | -0.2 | 50% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 29–23 | 51.4 | +6.0 | 65% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 39–16 | 54.6 | +22.9 | 94% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.