Mountain West · Lobos · Albuquerque, NM
New Mexico
Your complete New Mexico season outlook.
Thirteen returning starters, Jack Layne and Jason Eck create the conference's strongest continuity profile, though last year's close-game success warrants caution.
Home stadiumUniversity StadiumRPR rank#64Projected-wins rank#23
Projected wins8.07Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +0.3Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #64National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#95Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #23Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.06
Probability over40%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +0.3
- National RPR Rank
- #64
- Schedule strength rank
- #95
- Average opponent power
- -7.6
- Offense rating
- 25.6
- Defense rating
- 26.1
- Projected QB
- Jack Layne
- QB starts
- 13
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Jason Eck
- Returning starters
- 13
- Portal rank
- 5
- Roster fragility
- 31.4
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
40.8%
53.3%
69.9%
719.7%
826.6%
923.4%
1012.5%
113.4%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 32–17 | 49.0 | +14.8 | 84% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Mercyhurst | Home | 39–13 | 51.7 | +25.3 | 95% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 14–34 | 48.6 | -20.3 | 9% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 32–18 | 50.9 | +14.0 | 83% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 37–14 | 50.4 | +22.8 | 94% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 27–26 | 53.8 | +1.1 | 53% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 27–24 | 50.7 | +3.4 | 59% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 33–19 | 52.0 | +13.2 | 81% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 6, 2026 | Away | 29–20 | 49.2 | +9.5 | 74% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 28–29 | 56.4 | -0.7 | 48% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 20, 2026 | Away | 26–20 | 45.7 | +6.2 | 66% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 29–24 | 52.4 | +4.6 | 62% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.