Mountain West · Falcons · USAF Academy, CO
Air Force
Your complete Air Force season outlook.
Liam Szarka and eight returning starters support a rebound in the option system, but the defense remains the limiting unit.
Home stadiumFalcon StadiumRPR rank#78Projected-wins rank#29
Projected wins7.85Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating -2.0Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #78National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#103Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #29Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.61
Probability over60%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -2.0
- National RPR Rank
- #78
- Schedule strength rank
- #103
- Average opponent power
- -8.7
- Offense rating
- 25.5
- Defense rating
- 27.6
- Projected QB
- Liam Szarka
- QB starts
- 8
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Troy Calhoun
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 10
- Roster fragility
- 41.0
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
41.4%
55.1%
612.2%
721.3%
825.1%
920.3%
1010.6%
113.3%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Duquesne | Home | 37–16 | 52.5 | +21.2 | 92% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 26–25 | 51.5 | +1.1 | 53% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 29–21 | 50.0 | +7.7 | 70% | Medium | |
| 4 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 27–28 | 53.9 | -0.5 | 49% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 31–18 | 48.8 | +13.6 | 82% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 27–30 | 57.2 | -3.0 | 42% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 23, 2026 | Away | 25–21 | 46.5 | +4.2 | 61% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 32–21 | 53.0 | +11.7 | 78% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 25–28 | 52.7 | -2.4 | 44% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 34–18 | 52.8 | +16.1 | 86% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 20, 2026 | Home | 36–15 | 51.1 | +20.9 | 92% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 24–29 | 52.4 | -4.6 | 38% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.