Mountain West · Bison · Fargo, ND
North Dakota State
Your complete North Dakota State season outlook.
The Bison bring elite program infrastructure and a strong defense into FBS, but offensive skill turnover and four difficult conference road games constrain the median.
Home stadiumFargodomeRPR rank#69Projected-wins rank#16
Projected wins8.47Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 7–10
Rundown Power Rating -0.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #69National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#119Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #16Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.46
Probability over51%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -0.7
- National RPR Rank
- #69
- Schedule strength rank
- #119
- Average opponent power
- -10.4
- Offense rating
- 24.5
- Defense rating
- 25.6
- Projected QB
- Nathan Hayes
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Tim Polasek
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 9
- Roster fragility
- 47.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
52.0%
66.6%
715.5%
824.8%
926.1%
1017.1%
116.4%
121.0%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Home | 32–22 | 53.7 | +9.4 | 74% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 5, 2026 | Fordham | Home | 36–15 | 50.9 | +20.3 | 91% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 25–26 | 51.5 | -1.1 | 47% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 36–16 | 51.5 | +19.9 | 91% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 28–17 | 44.9 | +10.7 | 76% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 25–31 | 55.5 | -6.3 | 34% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 31–17 | 48.3 | +13.8 | 82% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 24–27 | 50.7 | -3.4 | 41% | Low | |
| 9 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 36–14 | 49.5 | +21.7 | 93% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 27–26 | 52.9 | +0.2 | 50% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 34–14 | 47.2 | +19.9 | 91% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 32–20 | 51.2 | +12.0 | 79% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.