MAC · Cardinals · Muncie, IN
Ball State
Your complete Ball State season outlook.
Five offensive starters and a rebuilt quarterback room can improve the scoring floor, but low snapback and only two defensive starters keep the range wide.
Home stadiumScheumann StadiumRPR rank#134Projected-wins rank#130
Projected wins2.90Most likely: 3 wins · 80% range 2–4
Rundown Power Rating -24.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #134National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#115Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #130Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -0.67
Probability over32%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -24.9
- National RPR Rank
- #134
- Schedule strength rank
- #115
- Average opponent power
- -10.0
- Offense rating
- 12.4
- Defense rating
- 36.7
- Projected QB
- Tyler Mizzell / Keldric Luster
- QB starts
- 8
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Mike Uremovich
- Returning starters
- 7
- Portal rank
- 5
- Roster fragility
- 63.9
Record outcomes
Win distribution
03.1%
113.2%
224.5%
326.9%
419.1%
59.2%
63.1%
70.7%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 4–46 | 49.1 | -42.0 | <1% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Stony Brook | Home | 22–28 | 50.3 | -5.4 | 36% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 16–38 | 53.4 | -21.7 | 7% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 21–29 | 50.0 | -8.0 | 30% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 17–29 | 46.3 | -11.7 | 22% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 7–39 | 46.4 | -32.3 | 2% | High | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 16–30 | 45.4 | -14.4 | 17% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 25–26 | 50.9 | -0.0 | 50% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 4, 2026 | Away | 26–23 | 49.2 | +3.2 | 58% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 11, 2026 | Home | 17–28 | 45.8 | -10.9 | 23% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 17, 2026 | Away | 15–29 | 43.4 | -13.8 | 18% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 18–29 | 47.6 | -10.7 | 24% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.