MAC · Rockets · Toledo, OH
Toledo
Your complete Toledo season outlook.
The conference's largest transfer class can replace lost production quickly, but one returning starter and a new staff create the MAC's most extreme high-upside rebuild.
Home stadiumGlass BowlRPR rank#108Projected-wins rank#59
Projected wins6.91Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating -10.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #108National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#134Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #59Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge -0.76
Probability over37%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -10.9
- National RPR Rank
- #108
- Schedule strength rank
- #134
- Average opponent power
- -13.9
- Offense rating
- 17.0
- Defense rating
- 27.8
- Projected QB
- John Alan Richter
- QB starts
- 1
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Mike Jacobs
- Returning starters
- 1
- Portal rank
- 3
- Roster fragility
- 77.1
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
31.8%
45.6%
512.5%
619.8%
723.0%
819.4%
911.6%
104.6%
111.1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4, 2026 | Away | 18–31 | 48.4 | -12.9 | 20% | Low | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Central Connecticut State | Home | 30–18 | 47.9 | +11.7 | 78% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 26–27 | 52.0 | -0.3 | 49% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 19–26 | 45.6 | -7.2 | 31% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 29–17 | 46.3 | +11.7 | 78% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 23–20 | 43.5 | +2.9 | 58% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 24–23 | 47.3 | +1.4 | 54% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 21–23 | 44.1 | -1.9 | 45% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 4, 2026 | Away | 29–20 | 48.6 | +9.3 | 73% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 11, 2026 | Home | 34–13 | 46.8 | +21.7 | 93% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 18, 2026 | Home | 24–19 | 43.1 | +4.3 | 61% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 20–21 | 41.1 | -0.4 | 49% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.