Big Ten · Wildcats · Evanston, IL
Northwestern
Your complete Northwestern season outlook.
Reasonable continuity and Chip Kelly's offensive value help, but the portal class is near neutral and the schedule is difficult.
Home stadiumRyan FieldRPR rank#48Projected-wins rank#102
The first two 2026 home games are scheduled for Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium; Ryan Field is scheduled to host games beginning October 2.
Projected wins5.09Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–6
Rundown Power Rating +4.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #48National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#17Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #102Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge -0.25
Probability over38%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +4.8
- National RPR Rank
- #48
- Schedule strength rank
- #17
- Average opponent power
- +8.8
- Offense rating
- 24.6
- Defense rating
- 20.3
- Projected QB
- Aidan Chiles
- QB starts
- 22
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- David Braun
- Returning starters
- 9
- Portal rank
- 10
- Roster fragility
- 24.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
22.5%
39.9%
421.1%
527.7%
622.7%
711.5%
83.5%
90.6%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | South Dakota State | Home | 29–19 | 48.0 | +10.1 | 75% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 27–20 | 47.3 | +6.9 | 68% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 25, 2026 | Away | 12–35 | 47.6 | -22.7 | 6% | High | |
| 4 | Oct 2, 2026 | Home | 20–29 | 48.3 | -9.0 | 27% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 39–7 | 46.4 | +32.3 | 98% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 25–23 | 48.4 | +2.3 | 56% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 28–23 | 51.9 | +5.1 | 63% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 11–38 | 48.9 | -26.6 | 4% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 20–25 | 45.3 | -5.6 | 36% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 9–38 | 46.8 | -29.4 | 3% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 20–24 | 44.1 | -3.3 | 41% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 21–28 | 49.3 | -7.6 | 31% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.