American · Mean Green · Denton, TX
North Texas
Your complete North Texas season outlook.
Tayven Jackson and Neal Brown offer a credible offensive reset, but zero returning starters create the conference's most extreme integration challenge.
Home stadiumDATCU StadiumRPR rank#109Projected-wins rank#104
Projected wins5.02Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–6
Rundown Power Rating -11.1Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #109National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#85Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #104Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge -0.63
Probability over37%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -11.1
- National RPR Rank
- #109
- Schedule strength rank
- #85
- Average opponent power
- -6.5
- Offense rating
- 24.0
- Defense rating
- 35.1
- Projected QB
- Tayven Jackson
- QB starts
- 16
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Neal Brown
- Returning starters
- 0
- Portal rank
- 3
- Roster fragility
- 72.4
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
10.5%
23.5%
311.4%
421.7%
526.0%
620.8%
711.1%
84.0%
90.9%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 8–48 | 55.6 | -40.1 | <1% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 24–37 | 60.7 | -12.5 | 20% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 29–38 | 66.7 | -9.6 | 26% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Houston Christian | Home | 34–22 | 56.0 | +11.5 | 78% | Low |
| 5 | Oct 1, 2026 | Away | 26–32 | 57.9 | -6.4 | 33% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 40–16 | 56.4 | +24.0 | 95% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 21–36 | 57.4 | -14.8 | 16% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 29, 2026 | Home | 30–32 | 62.0 | -2.5 | 43% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 30–24 | 54.5 | +6.0 | 65% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 24–37 | 61.3 | -12.4 | 20% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 23–32 | 55.3 | -8.7 | 28% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 34–25 | 59.7 | +9.1 | 73% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.