Big Ten · Trojans · Los Angeles, CA
USC
Your complete USC season outlook.
Fourteen returning starters, Jayden Maiava and a major defensive staff upgrade create a stronger team than the schedule-only baseline indicates.
Home stadiumLos Angeles Memorial ColiseumRPR rank#11Projected-wins rank#26
Projected wins7.92Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +17.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #11National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#16Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #26Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.39
Probability over33%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +17.9
- National RPR Rank
- #11
- Schedule strength rank
- #16
- Average opponent power
- +8.8
- Offense rating
- 38.2
- Defense rating
- 20.2
- Projected QB
- Jayden Maiava
- QB starts
- 20
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Lincoln Riley
- Returning starters
- 14
- Portal rank
- 7
- Roster fragility
- 19.0
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
52.7%
610.4%
723.0%
830.1%
922.4%
109.0%
111.8%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Home | 46–10 | 55.9 | +35.9 | 99% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 4, 2026 | Home | 36–14 | 50.5 | +21.9 | 93% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 45–15 | 59.8 | +29.6 | 98% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 37–22 | 59.6 | +14.8 | 84% | High | |
| 5 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 23–33 | 56.5 | -9.8 | 26% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 30–25 | 54.6 | +5.0 | 63% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 27–29 | 55.9 | -1.3 | 47% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 31–18 | 48.5 | +13.2 | 81% | High | |
| 9 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 20–34 | 54.3 | -13.5 | 18% | High | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 22–33 | 55.2 | -11.4 | 22% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 35–19 | 53.8 | +16.6 | 87% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 33–23 | 56.3 | +10.4 | 76% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.