Conference USA · Hilltoppers · Bowling Green, KY
Western Kentucky
Your complete Western Kentucky season outlook.
Tyson Helton's repeatable offensive reload and a favorable league slate offset limited returning starters, keeping WKU among the title contenders.
Home stadiumHouchens Industries–L.T. Smith StadiumRPR rank#85Projected-wins rank#44
Projected wins7.43Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -4.5Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #85National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#101Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #44Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.19
Probability over50%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -4.5
- National RPR Rank
- #85
- Schedule strength rank
- #101
- Average opponent power
- -8.5
- Offense rating
- 25.6
- Defense rating
- 30.9
- Projected QB
- Rodney Tisdale Jr.
- QB starts
- 6
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Tyson Helton
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 5
- Roster fragility
- 57.9
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
41.8%
56.4%
615.7%
725.6%
827.5%
917.4%
105.0%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 28–24 | 51.9 | +4.4 | 62% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 10–44 | 54.2 | -34.0 | 1% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 10–44 | 54.0 | -33.2 | 1% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Mercyhurst | Home | 37–17 | 54.4 | +19.9 | 91% | Low |
| 5 | Oct 1, 2026 | Away | 31–23 | 53.6 | +8.5 | 71% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 8, 2026 | Home | 35–19 | 54.3 | +16.3 | 86% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 14, 2026 | Away | 37–18 | 55.8 | +19.1 | 90% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 27, 2026 | Home | 34–24 | 58.1 | +10.7 | 76% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 37–18 | 55.5 | +19.1 | 90% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 31–26 | 57.3 | +5.0 | 63% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 28–29 | 57.6 | -1.3 | 47% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 30–24 | 54.2 | +6.3 | 66% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.