Conference USA · Gamecocks · Jacksonville, AL
Jacksonville State
Your complete Jacksonville State season outlook.
Nine returning starters and Caden Creel support another title run, while replacing the lead rushing production lowers the offensive ceiling.
Home stadiumAmFirst StadiumRPR rank#97Projected-wins rank#38
Projected wins7.57Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -7.1Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #97National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#130Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #38Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.21
Probability over53%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -7.1
- National RPR Rank
- #97
- Schedule strength rank
- #130
- Average opponent power
- -13.1
- Offense rating
- 25.1
- Defense rating
- 31.8
- Projected QB
- Caden Creel
- QB starts
- 10
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Charles Kelly
- Returning starters
- 9
- Portal rank
- 4
- Roster fragility
- 37.6
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
42.2%
56.9%
615.1%
722.7%
824.1%
917.5%
108.3%
112.3%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Away | 22–32 | 53.7 | -9.4 | 26% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 5, 2026 | Eastern Kentucky | Home | 30–25 | 54.7 | +5.3 | 64% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 25–22 | 47.7 | +3.1 | 58% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 30–27 | 56.6 | +3.5 | 59% | Low | |
| 5 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 38–17 | 55.7 | +21.3 | 92% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 7, 2026 | Away | 27–28 | 54.4 | -1.0 | 47% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 13, 2026 | Home | 33–24 | 57.3 | +8.8 | 72% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 28, 2026 | Away | 30–24 | 53.8 | +6.3 | 66% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 39–17 | 56.1 | +21.7 | 93% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 26–31 | 57.3 | -5.0 | 37% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 34–20 | 54.5 | +13.8 | 82% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 31–28 | 58.3 | +2.8 | 57% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.