Conference USA · Bearkats · Huntsville, TX
Sam Houston
Your complete Sam Houston season outlook.
The conference's top portal class adds upside, but only three starters return and both sides of the ball begin from the league's lowest rating tier.
Home stadiumElliott T. Bowers StadiumRPR rank#136Projected-wins rank#136
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium is scheduled to reopen for the 2026 season after renovation.
Projected wins2.18Most likely: 2 wins · 80% range 1–3
Rundown Power Rating -26.0Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #136National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#102Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #136Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -1.07
Probability over15%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -26.0
- National RPR Rank
- #136
- Schedule strength rank
- #102
- Average opponent power
- -8.6
- Offense rating
- 14.3
- Defense rating
- 40.0
- Projected QB
- Landyn Locke
- QB starts
- 5
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Phil Longo
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 1
- Roster fragility
- 61.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
08.0%
124.1%
230.5%
322.3%
410.7%
53.5%
60.8%
7<1%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 16–39 | 54.2 | -23.1 | 6% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 19–36 | 55.1 | -16.9 | 13% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Nicholls | Home | 22–31 | 53.2 | -9.7 | 26% | Low |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 5–47 | 52.3 | -42.0 | <1% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 8, 2026 | Away | 17–40 | 56.4 | -23.3 | 6% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 14, 2026 | Home | 18–37 | 55.8 | -19.1 | 10% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 21, 2026 | Home | 22–30 | 52.4 | -7.5 | 31% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 27, 2026 | Away | 22–31 | 53.1 | -9.5 | 26% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 17–39 | 56.1 | -21.7 | 7% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 19–34 | 53.0 | -14.5 | 17% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 28–26 | 54.2 | +2.4 | 56% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 20–35 | 55.8 | -15.1 | 16% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.