Conference USA · Blue Raiders · Murfreesboro, TN
Middle Tennessee
Your complete Middle Tennessee season outlook.
Roman Gagliano offers developmental upside, but only four starters return and the defensive baseline leaves little margin for error.
Home stadiumJohnny “Red” Floyd StadiumRPR rank#135Projected-wins rank#134
Projected wins2.31Most likely: 2 wins · 80% range 1–3
Rundown Power Rating -25.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #135National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#120Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #134Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -1.49
Probability over18%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -25.8
- National RPR Rank
- #135
- Schedule strength rank
- #120
- Average opponent power
- -10.7
- Offense rating
- 13.8
- Defense rating
- 39.9
- Projected QB
- Roman Gagliano
- QB starts
- 1
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Derek Mason
- Returning starters
- 4
- Portal rank
- 9
- Roster fragility
- 66.7
Record outcomes
Win distribution
07.4%
122.0%
229.1%
323.2%
412.3%
54.5%
61.2%
7<1%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Murray State | Home | 25–28 | 52.9 | -3.5 | 41% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 18–41 | 59.9 | -23.0 | 6% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 20–31 | 50.3 | -11.2 | 23% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 17–38 | 55.7 | -21.3 | 8% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 12–43 | 54.2 | -31.2 | 2% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 13, 2026 | Home | 22–34 | 56.5 | -11.6 | 22% | High | |
| 7 | Oct 20, 2026 | Away | 20–35 | 55.5 | -14.9 | 16% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 28, 2026 | Home | 19–34 | 52.6 | -14.5 | 17% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 18–37 | 55.5 | -19.1 | 10% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 17–39 | 56.0 | -22.8 | 6% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 26–28 | 54.2 | -2.4 | 44% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 23–30 | 52.0 | -7.0 | 32% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.