Big Ten · Spartans · East Lansing, MI
Michigan State
Your complete Michigan State season outlook.
Only three starters return and the program is changing coaches and systems, making the median lower and the outcome range unusually wide.
Home stadiumSpartan StadiumRPR rank#67Projected-wins rank#117
Projected wins4.19Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–5
Rundown Power Rating -0.4Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #67National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#24Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #117Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge +0.01
Probability over40%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -0.4
- National RPR Rank
- #67
- Schedule strength rank
- #24
- Average opponent power
- +7.7
- Offense rating
- 26.5
- Defense rating
- 26.2
- Projected QB
- Alessio Milivojevic
- QB starts
- 4
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Pat Fitzgerald
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 14
- Roster fragility
- 76.0
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
12.3%
29.8%
321.0%
426.4%
521.7%
612.3%
74.8%
81.3%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4, 2026 | Home | 31–18 | 48.4 | +12.9 | 80% | Low | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 34–17 | 51.7 | +16.8 | 87% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 13–42 | 54.1 | -29.0 | 3% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 23–29 | 51.7 | -6.5 | 33% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 21–25 | 45.4 | -3.8 | 40% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 23–31 | 53.7 | -7.9 | 30% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 23–25 | 48.4 | -2.3 | 44% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 22–31 | 53.0 | -8.8 | 28% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 16–35 | 50.8 | -19.4 | 10% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 19–32 | 51.4 | -12.9 | 20% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 20, 2026 | Home | 13–40 | 53.2 | -27.5 | 3% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 26–31 | 56.3 | -4.7 | 38% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.