Big Ten · Ducks · Eugene, OR
Oregon
Your complete Oregon season outlook.
Fifteen returning starters and Dante Moore give Oregon the conference's strongest continuity profile; coordinator turnover is the primary deduction.
Home stadiumAutzen StadiumRPR rank#2Projected-wins rank#4
Projected wins10.31Most likely: 11 wins · 80% range 9–11
Rundown Power Rating +29.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #2National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#18Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #4Strength plus schedule
Market total10.5
Adjusted Edge -0.13
Probability over46%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +29.2
- National RPR Rank
- #2
- Schedule strength rank
- #18
- Average opponent power
- +8.6
- Offense rating
- 41.2
- Defense rating
- 12.3
- Projected QB
- Dante Moore
- QB starts
- 18
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Dan Lanning
- Returning starters
- 15
- Portal rank
- 4
- Roster fragility
- 20.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
5<1%
6<1%
70.8%
84.3%
915.2%
1033.2%
1135.4%
1211.0%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 39–14 | 53.3 | +24.7 | 95% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 36–18 | 54.1 | +18.1 | 89% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 18, 2026 | Portland State | Home | 47–5 | 52.8 | +42.0 | >99% | Medium |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 33–23 | 56.5 | +9.8 | 74% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 40–13 | 53.5 | +26.8 | 96% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 38–14 | 52.2 | +23.5 | 94% | High | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 36–18 | 54.2 | +17.3 | 88% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 38–11 | 48.9 | +26.6 | 96% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 22–29 | 51.6 | -6.9 | 32% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 33–18 | 51.2 | +15.0 | 84% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 20, 2026 | Away | 40–13 | 53.2 | +27.5 | 97% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 34–18 | 51.8 | +16.4 | 86% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.