Conference USA · Flames · Lynchburg, VA
Liberty
Your complete Liberty season outlook.
Deshawn Purdie, Jamey Chadwell and the league's strongest offensive baseline make Liberty the favorite, with discipline and roster integration the key variables.
Home stadiumWilliams StadiumRPR rank#91Projected-wins rank#17
Projected wins8.45Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 7–10
Rundown Power Rating -5.6Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #91National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#138Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #17Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge +0.12
Probability over50%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -5.6
- National RPR Rank
- #91
- Schedule strength rank
- #138
- Average opponent power
- -15.1
- Offense rating
- 25.9
- Defense rating
- 31.5
- Projected QB
- Deshawn Purdie
- QB starts
- 13
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Jamey Chadwell
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 2
- Roster fragility
- 42.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
52.3%
67.0%
715.8%
824.1%
925.1%
1017.1%
116.8%
121.1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 24–31 | 54.9 | -6.8 | 32% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Gardner-Webb | Home | 34–21 | 55.0 | +12.8 | 80% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 38–16 | 53.4 | +21.7 | 93% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 24, 2026 | Away | 31–26 | 57.0 | +5.7 | 65% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 2, 2026 | Away | 31–27 | 58.7 | +4.3 | 61% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 8, 2026 | Home | 40–17 | 56.4 | +23.3 | 94% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 21, 2026 | Away | 28–27 | 54.7 | +0.8 | 52% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 34–24 | 57.6 | +10.5 | 76% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 31–23 | 54.1 | +7.3 | 69% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 39–17 | 56.0 | +22.8 | 94% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 29–28 | 57.6 | +1.3 | 53% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 33–22 | 54.9 | +10.4 | 76% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.