American · Midshipmen · Annapolis, MD
Navy
Your complete Navy season outlook.
The scheme, defense and 11 returning starters support the highest league rating; replacing Blake Horvath with Braxton Woodson reduces the offensive ceiling.
Home stadiumNavy–Marine Corps Memorial StadiumRPR rank#63Projected-wins rank#24
Projected wins8.04Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +1.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #63National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#84Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #24Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.22
Probability over66%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +1.2
- National RPR Rank
- #63
- Schedule strength rank
- #84
- Average opponent power
- -6.4
- Offense rating
- 27.6
- Defense rating
- 26.8
- Projected QB
- Braxton Woodson
- QB starts
- 3
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Brian Newberry
- Returning starters
- 11
- Portal rank
- 14
- Roster fragility
- 42.6
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
40.8%
53.4%
610.0%
719.7%
826.8%
923.3%
1012.5%
113.2%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Towson | Home | 35–18 | 53.2 | +16.8 | 87% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 32–27 | 59.2 | +5.6 | 64% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 25, 2026 | Away | 37–20 | 56.9 | +16.9 | 87% | Medium | |
| 4 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 28–27 | 53.9 | +0.5 | 51% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 33–22 | 55.1 | +10.8 | 76% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 30–29 | 58.5 | +0.3 | 51% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 36–21 | 57.4 | +14.8 | 84% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Neutral | 15–40 | 55.0 | -24.8 | 5% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 35–22 | 57.4 | +12.5 | 80% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 31–26 | 57.0 | +5.2 | 64% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 42–12 | 53.7 | +30.4 | 98% | Medium | |
| 12 | Dec 12, 2026 | Neutral | 28–25 | 53.4 | +3.4 | 59% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.