American · Blazers · Birmingham, AL
UAB
Your complete UAB season outlook.
Ryder Burton and Alex Mortensen give the offense upside, while a nearly complete defensive rebuild under Todd Grantham is likely to need time.
Home stadiumProtective StadiumRPR rank#124Projected-wins rank#126
Projected wins3.48Most likely: 3 wins · 80% range 2–5
Rundown Power Rating -17.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #124National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#97Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #126Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -0.06
Probability over47%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -17.7
- National RPR Rank
- #124
- Schedule strength rank
- #97
- Average opponent power
- -7.7
- Offense rating
- 20.5
- Defense rating
- 37.8
- Projected QB
- Ryder Burton
- QB starts
- 2
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Alex Mortensen
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 4
- Roster fragility
- 76.0
Record outcomes
Win distribution
00.6%
15.7%
218.7%
328.0%
424.9%
514.4%
65.7%
71.6%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3, 2026 | Away | 14–43 | 56.9 | -29.8 | 2% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 33–23 | 55.7 | +9.3 | 73% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 24–36 | 59.8 | -11.4 | 22% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 25, 2026 | Home | 20–37 | 56.9 | -16.9 | 13% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Samford | Home | 26–30 | 55.5 | -3.8 | 40% | Low |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 20–39 | 59.2 | -19.4 | 10% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 15, 2026 | Home | 21–34 | 54.4 | -13.3 | 19% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 20–39 | 58.9 | -18.2 | 11% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 37–19 | 55.9 | +17.2 | 87% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 24–36 | 59.7 | -11.9 | 21% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 23–38 | 60.8 | -14.5 | 17% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 25–34 | 59.7 | -9.1 | 27% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.