American · Tigers · Memphis, TN
Memphis
Your complete Memphis season outlook.
Charles Huff and a top-two transfer class create real upside, but only one returning starter and a late quarterback decision make immediate cohesion uncertain.
Home stadiumSimmons Bank Liberty StadiumRPR rank#71Projected-wins rank#47
Projected wins7.30Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -0.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #71National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#86Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #47Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge -0.15
Probability over46%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -0.9
- National RPR Rank
- #71
- Schedule strength rank
- #86
- Average opponent power
- -6.5
- Offense rating
- 28.4
- Defense rating
- 30.0
- Projected QB
- Marcus Stokes / Air Noland
- QB starts
- 12
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Charles Huff
- Returning starters
- 1
- Portal rank
- 2
- Roster fragility
- 76.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
30.7%
43.2%
59.1%
617.4%
723.8%
822.7%
914.8%
106.4%
111.6%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Away | 27–34 | 60.3 | -6.9 | 32% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 34–24 | 58.1 | +9.5 | 74% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 22–34 | 56.1 | -11.5 | 22% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 19, 2026 | UT Martin | Home | 35–21 | 55.6 | +13.7 | 82% | Low |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 43–13 | 56.0 | +29.4 | 98% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 39–20 | 59.2 | +19.4 | 90% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 16, 2026 | Away | 28–27 | 54.9 | +1.3 | 53% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 22, 2026 | Home | 29–26 | 54.5 | +3.2 | 59% | Low | |
| 9 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 30–26 | 55.7 | +3.9 | 60% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 12, 2026 | Away | 29–30 | 59.0 | -1.1 | 47% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 26–31 | 57.0 | -5.2 | 36% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 35–25 | 59.7 | +10.2 | 75% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.