Mountain West · Rebels · Las Vegas, NV
UNLV
Your complete UNLV season outlook.
Jackson Arnold and the league's top portal class give UNLV the highest offensive ceiling; defensive turnover and line play are the primary risks.
Home stadiumAllegiant StadiumRPR rank#58Projected-wins rank#11
Projected wins8.84Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 8–10
Rundown Power Rating +3.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #58National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#92Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #11Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.94
Probability over82%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +3.7
- National RPR Rank
- #58
- Schedule strength rank
- #92
- Average opponent power
- -7.3
- Offense rating
- 31.8
- Defense rating
- 28.3
- Projected QB
- Jackson Arnold
- QB starts
- 20
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Dan Mullen
- Returning starters
- 6
- Portal rank
- 1
- Roster fragility
- 42.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
51.3%
64.6%
711.8%
821.2%
926.4%
1021.6%
1110.5%
122.3%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Home | 34–27 | 60.3 | +6.9 | 68% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 31–27 | 58.6 | +4.2 | 61% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 37–24 | 60.7 | +12.5 | 80% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 37–16 | 52.7 | +20.6 | 92% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 30–28 | 58.0 | +1.2 | 53% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 31–25 | 55.5 | +6.3 | 66% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 30–27 | 57.2 | +3.0 | 58% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 39–14 | 52.8 | +25.3 | 95% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 32–18 | 50.4 | +13.9 | 82% | High | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 29–28 | 56.4 | +0.7 | 52% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 37–20 | 56.8 | +17.1 | 87% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 36–18 | 53.9 | +17.9 | 88% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.