Sun Belt · Red Wolves · Jonesboro, AR
Arkansas State
Your complete Arkansas State season outlook.
Seven offensive starters, strong snapback and an experienced skill group support the West contender profile; first-year starting quarterback risk remains.
Home stadiumCentennial Bank StadiumRPR rank#99Projected-wins rank#58
Projected wins6.96Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–8
Rundown Power Rating -7.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #99National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#123Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #58Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge +0.64
Probability over62%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -7.8
- National RPR Rank
- #99
- Schedule strength rank
- #123
- Average opponent power
- -11.3
- Offense rating
- 24.2
- Defense rating
- 32.2
- Projected QB
- Trey Owens
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low
- Head coach
- Butch Jones
- Returning starters
- 10
- Portal rank
- 3
- Roster fragility
- 48.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
31.2%
44.5%
511.5%
620.5%
725.0%
820.9%
911.5%
103.9%
110.7%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 24–34 | 58.1 | -9.5 | 26% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | West Georgia | Home | 32–23 | 54.4 | +8.6 | 72% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 18–38 | 55.2 | -20.2 | 9% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 29–25 | 54.1 | +3.6 | 59% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 29–30 | 58.7 | -1.6 | 46% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 8, 2026 | Home | 33–25 | 58.0 | +7.5 | 69% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 35–21 | 56.5 | +13.7 | 82% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 39–19 | 58.3 | +19.6 | 90% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 37–18 | 54.7 | +18.9 | 90% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 30–26 | 56.4 | +3.9 | 60% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 26–29 | 55.0 | -2.6 | 43% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 28–29 | 55.4 | -0.3 | 49% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.