Sun Belt · Panthers · Atlanta, GA
Georgia State
Your complete Georgia State season outlook.
Cameran Brown adds stability at quarterback, while a major defensive rebuild and one of the nation's lowest baselines keep the outlook modest.
Home stadiumCenter Parc Credit Union StadiumRPR rank#133Projected-wins rank#135
Projected wins2.21Most likely: 2 wins · 80% range 1–3
Rundown Power Rating -24.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #133National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#108Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #135Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -1.61
Probability over16%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -24.8
- National RPR Rank
- #133
- Schedule strength rank
- #108
- Average opponent power
- -9.2
- Offense rating
- 17.3
- Defense rating
- 41.3
- Projected QB
- Cameran Brown
- QB starts
- 6
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Dell McGee
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 8
- Roster fragility
- 58.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
07.9%
123.6%
230.2%
322.6%
411.0%
53.7%
60.9%
7<1%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | North Carolina A&T | Home | 28–29 | 55.7 | -0.4 | 49% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 20–36 | 55.4 | -15.6 | 15% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 12–41 | 52.7 | -29.6 | 2% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 24–27 | 51.9 | -3.0 | 42% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 18–34 | 52.0 | -16.6 | 13% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 15–40 | 55.6 | -25.1 | 5% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 19–39 | 58.3 | -19.6 | 10% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 24–33 | 57.6 | -8.9 | 28% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 21–36 | 57.2 | -14.8 | 16% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 22–36 | 57.6 | -14.1 | 17% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 20–43 | 62.7 | -22.5 | 7% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 23–37 | 59.9 | -14.5 | 17% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.