Sun Belt · Dukes · Harrisonburg, VA
James Madison
Your complete James Madison season outlook.
Camden Coleman and the league's top portal class preserve contender upside, but Billy Napier must integrate a new staff and a roster returning only three starters.
Home stadiumBridgeforth StadiumRPR rank#75Projected-wins rank#14
Projected wins8.56Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 7–10
Rundown Power Rating -1.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #75National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#126Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #14Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.10
Probability over53%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -1.7
- National RPR Rank
- #75
- Schedule strength rank
- #126
- Average opponent power
- -11.7
- Offense rating
- 25.2
- Defense rating
- 26.6
- Projected QB
- Camden Coleman
- QB starts
- 14
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Billy Napier
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 1
- Roster fragility
- 66.7
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
40.5%
52.2%
66.9%
714.5%
822.6%
924.9%
1018.4%
118.2%
121.7%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 31–24 | 54.9 | +6.8 | 68% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Wagner | Home | 37–15 | 51.8 | +22.6 | 93% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 23–26 | 49.4 | -3.5 | 41% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 25–24 | 48.2 | +0.5 | 51% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 33–26 | 58.7 | +7.3 | 69% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 29–25 | 53.7 | +4.6 | 62% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 40–15 | 55.6 | +25.1 | 95% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 22, 2026 | Away | 31–23 | 53.3 | +8.1 | 71% | Low | |
| 9 | Oct 29, 2026 | Home | 29–23 | 52.7 | +6.1 | 66% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 5, 2026 | Away | 37–17 | 53.8 | +19.3 | 90% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 29–23 | 52.2 | +6.8 | 67% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 34–19 | 53.7 | +15.3 | 85% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.