Sun Belt · Monarchs · Norfolk, VA
Old Dominion
Your complete Old Dominion season outlook.
Quinn Henicle and six returning defensive starters support another strong season, but only 46% snapback and one returning offensive starter introduce regression risk.
Home stadiumS.B. Ballard StadiumRPR rank#88Projected-wins rank#45
Projected wins7.38Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -5.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #88National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#117Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #45Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge -0.21
Probability over48%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -5.2
- National RPR Rank
- #88
- Schedule strength rank
- #117
- Average opponent power
- -10.3
- Offense rating
- 20.4
- Defense rating
- 25.1
- Projected QB
- Quinn Henicle
- QB starts
- 13
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Ricky Rahne
- Returning starters
- 7
- Portal rank
- 11
- Roster fragility
- 49.4
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
30.7%
42.9%
58.3%
616.8%
723.4%
823.2%
915.8%
106.8%
111.7%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Norfolk State | Home | 33–15 | 48.3 | +18.3 | 89% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 16–33 | 48.7 | -17.4 | 12% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 23–24 | 47.2 | -0.9 | 47% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 24–25 | 48.2 | -0.5 | 49% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 34–18 | 52.0 | +16.6 | 87% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 27–23 | 49.7 | +4.0 | 60% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 15, 2026 | Home | 28–22 | 50.1 | +5.8 | 65% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 25–24 | 48.8 | +0.3 | 51% | Low | |
| 9 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 29–26 | 55.1 | +3.5 | 59% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 28–22 | 50.2 | +6.4 | 66% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 26–23 | 48.7 | +3.1 | 58% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 35–15 | 50.3 | +20.1 | 91% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.