MAC · Hornets · Sacramento, CA
Sacramento State
Your complete Sacramento State season outlook.
Carson Conklin and a large transfer class give the FBS newcomer upside, but only four returning starters, extreme travel and championship ineligibility increase uncertainty.
Home stadiumHornet StadiumRPR rank#130Projected-wins rank#120
Projected wins3.85Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–5
Rundown Power Rating -22.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #130National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#137Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #120Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge -0.76
Probability over32%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -22.7
- National RPR Rank
- #130
- Schedule strength rank
- #137
- Average opponent power
- -14.1
- Offense rating
- 15.2
- Defense rating
- 37.9
- Projected QB
- Carson Conklin
- QB starts
- 6
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Alonzo Carter
- Returning starters
- 4
- Portal rank
- 2
- Roster fragility
- 70.2
Record outcomes
Win distribution
00.6%
14.3%
213.6%
323.6%
425.5%
518.5%
69.5%
73.3%
80.8%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Away | 20–32 | 51.9 | -11.1 | 23% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 5, 2026 | Mississippi Valley State | Home | 29–24 | 52.5 | +5.1 | 63% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 13–35 | 47.5 | -22.2 | 7% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 16–36 | 51.5 | -19.9 | 9% | Medium | |
| 5 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 31–20 | 51.5 | +11.1 | 77% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 18–30 | 47.7 | -12.0 | 21% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 20–26 | 45.6 | -6.6 | 33% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 26–25 | 50.9 | +0.0 | 50% | Low | |
| 9 | Oct 30, 2026 | Home | 26–27 | 52.3 | -0.3 | 49% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 4, 2026 | Home | 20–29 | 48.6 | -9.3 | 27% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 11, 2026 | Away | 18–32 | 49.8 | -13.7 | 18% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 16–39 | 54.6 | -22.9 | 6% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.