Sun Belt · Bulldogs · Ruston, LA
Louisiana Tech
Your complete Louisiana Tech season outlook.
Blake Baker's return and balanced continuity support a stable first Sun Belt season, with road trips to both Georgia Southern and South Alabama limiting the ceiling.
Home stadiumOrigin Bank Field at Joe Aillet StadiumRPR rank#100Projected-wins rank#73
Projected wins6.20Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating -7.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #100National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#98Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #73Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge +0.35
Probability over67%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -7.8
- National RPR Rank
- #100
- Schedule strength rank
- #98
- Average opponent power
- -7.7
- Offense rating
- 22.5
- Defense rating
- 30.4
- Projected QB
- Blake Baker
- QB starts
- 7
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Sonny Cumbie
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 10
- Roster fragility
- 42.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
20.7%
33.3%
49.7%
518.7%
624.8%
722.5%
813.5%
95.3%
101.2%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Northwestern State | Home | 33–19 | 52.5 | +14.4 | 83% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 9–40 | 48.8 | -31.3 | 2% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 22–36 | 57.2 | -14.2 | 17% | High | |
| 4 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 25–28 | 52.6 | -2.8 | 43% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 30–27 | 56.7 | +3.2 | 58% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 33–20 | 52.7 | +13.4 | 81% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 24–25 | 48.8 | -0.3 | 49% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 29–27 | 56.1 | +2.8 | 57% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 24–29 | 53.4 | -5.0 | 37% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 36–18 | 54.5 | +18.0 | 88% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 29–26 | 55.0 | +2.6 | 57% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 26–28 | 54.3 | -1.6 | 46% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.