Sun Belt · Golden Eagles · Hattiesburg, MS
Southern Miss
Your complete Southern Miss season outlook.
A new staff, one returning starter and an unsettled roster create the conference's largest rebuild despite a sizable portal class.
Home stadiumM.M. Roberts StadiumRPR rank#131Projected-wins rank#132
Projected wins2.40Most likely: 2 wins · 80% range 1–4
Rundown Power Rating -23.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #131National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#100Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #132Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge -1.24
Probability over20%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -23.7
- National RPR Rank
- #131
- Schedule strength rank
- #100
- Average opponent power
- -8.3
- Offense rating
- 16.2
- Defense rating
- 39.3
- Projected QB
- Ethan Hampton
- QB starts
- 10
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Blake Anderson
- Returning starters
- 1
- Portal rank
- 5
- Roster fragility
- 85.4
Record outcomes
Win distribution
06.6%
120.7%
228.7%
323.8%
413.2%
55.2%
61.5%
7<1%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Alcorn State | Home | 28–27 | 53.9 | +0.6 | 51% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 7–44 | 51.0 | -36.9 | 1% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 22–32 | 54.4 | -9.9 | 25% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 16–37 | 53.3 | -20.4 | 9% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 6, 2026 | Away | 17–38 | 54.9 | -20.9 | 8% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 21–35 | 56.5 | -13.7 | 18% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 22–36 | 58.2 | -13.3 | 19% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 26–28 | 54.2 | -1.6 | 46% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 5, 2026 | Home | 17–37 | 53.8 | -19.3 | 10% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 18–36 | 54.5 | -18.0 | 12% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 24–33 | 57.6 | -8.8 | 28% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 15–35 | 50.3 | -20.1 | 9% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.